28 Jan 2010 Tweedy Browne - Q4 2009 Commentary ( Portfolio )
With global equity markets up approximately 73%(MSCI World Index) from the market bottom in early March of last year, stocks today in general appear to be fairly to fully valued. That said, from our perspective, it is more a market of stocks and not so much a stock market with some stocks more attractively priced than others. As with previous stock market collapses, the bounce off the bottom was led by lower quality stocks, those that suffered the worst declines during the downturn. While most stocks were up nicely for the year, steadier, higher quality businesses, particularly those that pay a dividend, significantly underperformed lower quality non-dividend paying issues, and today we believe offer investors much better value. For example, in 2009 the 370 stocks in the S&P 500 that paid some kind of a dividend were up 27.7% on average versus a return of 82.4% for the stocks that did not pay a dividend. The same held true for global equities with the stocks that pay a dividend in the MSCI World Index up 32.3% versus a return of 75% for the stocks in the index that did not pay a dividend. In general, the higher the dividend yield the lower the return in 2009. As we got closer to year-end, dividend stocks perked up, and were in part responsible for our Funds’ strong 4th Quarter results.

For the most part, the top 25 holdings in our Funds’ portfolios, which account for approximately 75% to 80% of the portfolios, are chock full of these steadier dividend-paying companies with more sustainable demand characteristics. On average, as of December 31, 2009, they were trading at approximately 15x current year estimated earnings and had a dividend yield on average of over 3%. This compares favorably to indexes such as the S&P 500 and the MSCI World, which were trading at over 17 times earnings. These are companies that are for the most part globally diversified, have solid balance sheets, sell products to an aspiring and growing global middle class, and pay an attractive dividend. Many of these companies such as Heineken, Unilever, Nestle, Diageo, Phillip Morris International, and Novartis, among a host of others, derive a surprising amount of their revenues and profits from the emerging markets, and from our point of view this indirect approach is a cheaper and safer way to invest in these rapidly growing Third World economies. So despite the robust returns we enjoyed in 2009, we feel that our Funds’ portfolios are still relatively well positioned, and attractively valued.