Article archive
07 Mar 2012 Is U.S. Energy Independence Finally Within Reach?
"Energy self-sufficiency is now in sight," says energy economist Phil Verleger. He believes that within a decade, the U.S. will no longer need to import crude oil and will be a natural gas exporter.
"Energy self-sufficiency is now in sight," says energy economist Phil Verleger. He believes that within a decade, the U.S. will no longer need to import crude oil and will be a natural gas exporter.
06 Mar 2012 Video: Rolfe Sees Fair Value for Berkshire A shares at $185,000
David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners, talks about his view on Berkshire Hathaway Inc. stock.
David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners, talks about his view on Berkshire Hathaway Inc. stock.
05 Mar 2012 The winds of change
To the nearest whole number, the percentage of the world’s energy that comes from wind turbines today is: zero. Despite the regressive subsidy (pushing pensioners into fuel poverty while improving the wine cellars of grand estates), despite tearing rural communities apart, killing jobs, despoiling views, erecting pylons, felling forests, killing bats and eagles, causing industrial accidents, clogging motorways, polluting lakes in Inner Mongolia with the toxic and radioactive tailings from refining neodymium, a ton of which is in the average turbine — despite all this, the total energy generated each day by wind has yet to reach half a per cent worldwide.
To the nearest whole number, the percentage of the world’s energy that comes from wind turbines today is: zero. Despite the regressive subsidy (pushing pensioners into fuel poverty while improving the wine cellars of grand estates), despite tearing rural communities apart, killing jobs, despoiling views, erecting pylons, felling forests, killing bats and eagles, causing industrial accidents, clogging motorways, polluting lakes in Inner Mongolia with the toxic and radioactive tailings from refining neodymium, a ton of which is in the average turbine — despite all this, the total energy generated each day by wind has yet to reach half a per cent worldwide.
04 Mar 2012 Robots that fly ... and cooperate
In his lab at Penn, Vijay Kumar and his team build flying quadrotors, small, agile robots that swarm, sense each other, and form ad hoc teams -- for construction, surveying disasters and far more.
In his lab at Penn, Vijay Kumar and his team build flying quadrotors, small, agile robots that swarm, sense each other, and form ad hoc teams -- for construction, surveying disasters and far more.
04 Mar 2012 Dow 1,339,410: The Latest Milestone
Crossing another 1,000-point mark on the Dow is hardly transformative, and it certainly doesn't mean stocks are cheap. But it is a reminder that today's investors should take a moment to count their blessings even as they maintain their vigilance.
Crossing another 1,000-point mark on the Dow is hardly transformative, and it certainly doesn't mean stocks are cheap. But it is a reminder that today's investors should take a moment to count their blessings even as they maintain their vigilance.
04 Mar 2012 What happened to the flying car?
OR a generation of baby-boomers it has been a source of huge disappointment. They grew up believing that one day they would fly to work in their very own sky cars—only to find themselves still very much grounded. More than a century after the Wright brothers first took to the air, personal aviation remains an unrealised dream.
OR a generation of baby-boomers it has been a source of huge disappointment. They grew up believing that one day they would fly to work in their very own sky cars—only to find themselves still very much grounded. More than a century after the Wright brothers first took to the air, personal aviation remains an unrealised dream.
03 Mar 2012 Pension funding - Raiding the coffers
THE New York Times has an excellent piece today on how state pension plans are borrowing from their pension plans to fund their own pension contributions.
THE New York Times has an excellent piece today on how state pension plans are borrowing from their pension plans to fund their own pension contributions.
01 Mar 2012 Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future
Peter Diamandis makes a case for optimism -- that we'll invent, innovate and create ways to solve the challenges that loom over us.
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which gives rich cash awards to the inventors and engineers who'll get us back to the moon, build a better car and explore the genome.
Peter Diamandis makes a case for optimism -- that we'll invent, innovate and create ways to solve the challenges that loom over us.
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which gives rich cash awards to the inventors and engineers who'll get us back to the moon, build a better car and explore the genome.
29 Feb 2012 Main Street's $100 Billion Stock-Market Blunder
The market may be back to pre-crisis levels, but many regular investors have missed out.
The market may be back to pre-crisis levels, but many regular investors have missed out.
27 Feb 2012 The Future Is So Bright, it's Dematerializing
Economic growth is a form of deflation. If the cost of, say, computing power goes down, then the users of computing power acquire more of it for less—and thus attain a higher standard of living.
Economic growth is a form of deflation. If the cost of, say, computing power goes down, then the users of computing power acquire more of it for less—and thus attain a higher standard of living.
23 Feb 2012 What North Dakota Knows that California Doesn’t
The real boom is in traditional energy, not “green jobs.”
The real boom is in traditional energy, not “green jobs.”
21 Feb 2012 Apple’s Stock May Not Be as Cheap as It Looks
On Dec. 31, 2009, for instance, Apple had a market capitalization of about $191 billion. Using the fiscal 2009 earnings that Apple initially reported, its price-earnings ratio that day was about 33. Using its restated numbers, the ratio would have been about 23. My guess is a similar effect is occurring today: Had it not been for the rule change, Apple’s P/E ratio would be higher, because the “E” would be lower.
On Dec. 31, 2009, for instance, Apple had a market capitalization of about $191 billion. Using the fiscal 2009 earnings that Apple initially reported, its price-earnings ratio that day was about 33. Using its restated numbers, the ratio would have been about 23. My guess is a similar effect is occurring today: Had it not been for the rule change, Apple’s P/E ratio would be higher, because the “E” would be lower.
20 Feb 2012 Chinese Labor, Cheap No More
It’s no wonder then that the day after meeting with Mr. Xi, President Obama showed up at a Master Lock plant in Milwaukee declaring that the time for manufacturing jobs to return to America had arrived. Not too long ago such a statement would have been nearly unthinkable, but now, thanks to China’s rising labor costs, it looks as if America might be back in the manufacturing game sooner than expected.
It’s no wonder then that the day after meeting with Mr. Xi, President Obama showed up at a Master Lock plant in Milwaukee declaring that the time for manufacturing jobs to return to America had arrived. Not too long ago such a statement would have been nearly unthinkable, but now, thanks to China’s rising labor costs, it looks as if America might be back in the manufacturing game sooner than expected.
18 Feb 2012 Driving, gas prices and the end of retail
Americans have cut way back on driving in recent years. Total vehicle-miles traveled has stagnated since 2007. One big question is whether this is a temporary blip due to the downturn — unemployed people, after all, don’t commute — or evidence of a long-term structural shift.
Americans have cut way back on driving in recent years. Total vehicle-miles traveled has stagnated since 2007. One big question is whether this is a temporary blip due to the downturn — unemployed people, after all, don’t commute — or evidence of a long-term structural shift.
18 Feb 2012 Internet On, Inhibitions Off: Why We Tell All
The greatest perils most people perceive in their children's social networking are that they spend too much time being social and that they admit to things that will come back to haunt them when they apply for work.
The greatest perils most people perceive in their children's social networking are that they spend too much time being social and that they admit to things that will come back to haunt them when they apply for work.
17 Feb 2012 Outfoxing the fraudsters
The United States accounts for 47% of global credit and debit card fraud, even though it is responsible for only 27% of the total volume of purchases, according to a study by the Nilson Report, a newsletter for the payments industry.
The United States accounts for 47% of global credit and debit card fraud, even though it is responsible for only 27% of the total volume of purchases, according to a study by the Nilson Report, a newsletter for the payments industry.
16 Feb 2012 When the crowd solves problems
The more specialized and sophisticated scientific research becomes, the farther it recedes from everyday experience. The clergymen-amateurs who made 19th-century scientific breakthroughs are a distant memory. Or are they? Paradoxically, in an increasing variety of fields, computers are coming to the rescue of the amateur, through crowd-sourced science.
The more specialized and sophisticated scientific research becomes, the farther it recedes from everyday experience. The clergymen-amateurs who made 19th-century scientific breakthroughs are a distant memory. Or are they? Paradoxically, in an increasing variety of fields, computers are coming to the rescue of the amateur, through crowd-sourced science.
16 Feb 2012 Facebook and the St. Petersburg Paradox
If you are considering buying into Facebook's initial public offering of stock, take a moment to ponder the St. Petersburg Paradox, an old riddle still relevant to investing today.
If you are considering buying into Facebook's initial public offering of stock, take a moment to ponder the St. Petersburg Paradox, an old riddle still relevant to investing today.
15 Feb 2012 A gold puzzle
...what strikes me, other than by historical standards how overpriced gold looks, is how volatile it is. In finance volatile assets are considered risky; it’s baffling that gold is considered a safe haven for anything.
...what strikes me, other than by historical standards how overpriced gold looks, is how volatile it is. In finance volatile assets are considered risky; it’s baffling that gold is considered a safe haven for anything.
13 Feb 2012 The 400% Man
Mecham looks for businesses with great long-term prospects, great management, strong cash flow and big defensive "moats," or barriers to entry for potential competitors. And he stresses the importance of sitting still and doing nothing. "Activity is the enemy of returns," says Mecham. "If I find two new ideas a year, that's phenomenal." Two ideas a year adds up to a pretty small portfolio -- Mecham typically owns between six and 12 stocks.
Mecham looks for businesses with great long-term prospects, great management, strong cash flow and big defensive "moats," or barriers to entry for potential competitors. And he stresses the importance of sitting still and doing nothing. "Activity is the enemy of returns," says Mecham. "If I find two new ideas a year, that's phenomenal." Two ideas a year adds up to a pretty small portfolio -- Mecham typically owns between six and 12 stocks.
11 Feb 2012 This Is Your Brain on a Hot Streak
...investors' forecasts of the market's return over the coming year were heavily swayed by how stocks performed in the previous month.
...investors' forecasts of the market's return over the coming year were heavily swayed by how stocks performed in the previous month.
10 Feb 2012 Are Pension Forecasts Way Too Sunny?
With the S&P 500's dividend yield at 2% and the long-term growth rate of dividends and earnings at 4.5% (including inflation), a sensible expectation for long-term annual stock returns is roughly 6.5%.
With the S&P 500's dividend yield at 2% and the long-term growth rate of dividends and earnings at 4.5% (including inflation), a sensible expectation for long-term annual stock returns is roughly 6.5%.
09 Feb 2012 Upward pressure on bond yields is becoming intense
It just doesn't make sense for the economy to be doing better while bond yields languish near all-time lows.
It just doesn't make sense for the economy to be doing better while bond yields languish near all-time lows.
08 Feb 2012 The cash conundrum revisited
According to ISI, domestic equity mutual funds have suffered net outflows of some $355 billion since Sep. '08, with $155 billion of that occurring since last April, and $6 billion so far this year.
According to ISI, domestic equity mutual funds have suffered net outflows of some $355 billion since Sep. '08, with $155 billion of that occurring since last April, and $6 billion so far this year.
07 Feb 2012 The Great Paradox - Why Stocks Aren’t Getting Respect
According to data aggregated by TrimTabs, investors have removed money from U.S. stock mutual funds in each of the last five years, including approximately $100 billion last year alone. Meanwhile, investors have added money to bond mutual funds in each of the last six years, including more than $110 billion into bond mutual funds last year.
According to data aggregated by TrimTabs, investors have removed money from U.S. stock mutual funds in each of the last five years, including approximately $100 billion last year alone. Meanwhile, investors have added money to bond mutual funds in each of the last six years, including more than $110 billion into bond mutual funds last year.
04 Feb 2012 Those afraid of fire should fear petrol cars more than electric vehicles
What is left unsaid in all this is the fact that conventional cars with a tank full of petrol are far greater fire hazards than electric cars will ever be. Some 185,000 vehicles catch fire in America each year, with no fewer than 285 people dying as a consequence. But, then, people have been living with the hazard of petrol for over a century. Irrationally, electric-vehicle fires are perceived as somehow more worrisome simply because they are new.
What is left unsaid in all this is the fact that conventional cars with a tank full of petrol are far greater fire hazards than electric cars will ever be. Some 185,000 vehicles catch fire in America each year, with no fewer than 285 people dying as a consequence. But, then, people have been living with the hazard of petrol for over a century. Irrationally, electric-vehicle fires are perceived as somehow more worrisome simply because they are new.
03 Feb 2012 Canada’s housing market
After years of lecturing America about loose lending, Canada now must confront a bubble of its own.
After years of lecturing America about loose lending, Canada now must confront a bubble of its own.
31 Jan 2012 U.S. recovering faster than its peers
If you look at the 10 largest developed economies in the world, the United States is the furthest along the path to recovery.
If you look at the 10 largest developed economies in the world, the United States is the furthest along the path to recovery.
31 Jan 2012 Homeownership Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since 1997; The Homeownership Bubble Is Still Deflating
One of the primary reasons for increased homeownerhip rates above 68% was the deterioration of credit and lending standards, including significant increases in the share of home purchases with very low down payments.
One of the primary reasons for increased homeownerhip rates above 68% was the deterioration of credit and lending standards, including significant increases in the share of home purchases with very low down payments.
29 Jan 2012 Greece and the euro
Despite a jobless rate that has risen to 18%, Greece still has a current-account deficit of 10% of GDP. For an economy to have so much slack and yet consume more than it produces is a sign of chronic uncompetitiveness. The IMF has said it will take more than a decade for Greece to become competitive.
Despite a jobless rate that has risen to 18%, Greece still has a current-account deficit of 10% of GDP. For an economy to have so much slack and yet consume more than it produces is a sign of chronic uncompetitiveness. The IMF has said it will take more than a decade for Greece to become competitive.