This page lists the portfolio holdings of John W. Rogers.
Stock Holdings
John W. Rogers - Ariel Appreciation
Period: Q2 2010
Portfolio date: 30 Jun 2010
No. of stocks: 39
Portfolio value: $1,260,547,000
| Symbol | Stock | % of portfolio | Shares | Recent activity | |
| HEW | hist | Hewitt Associates Inc. | 4.20 | 1,536,000 | Add 8.88% |
| ACN | hist | Accenture | 3.96 | 1,292,100 | Reduce 4.58% |
| GCI | hist | Gannett Co. | 3.94 | 3,687,200 | Reduce 1.60% |
| VIA.B | hist | Viacom Inc. | 3.91 | 1,569,500 | Reduce 6.94% |
| JLL | hist | Jones Lang Lasalle Inc. | 3.86 | 741,800 | Reduce 11.74% |
| NTRS | hist | Northern Trust Corp. | 3.75 | 1,011,300 | Reduce 4.72% |
| CBS | hist | CBS Corp. | 3.74 | 3,651,000 | Add 1.90% |
| TMO | hist | Thermo Fisher Scientific | 3.21 | 825,854 | Reduce 3.05% |
| AFL | hist | AFLAC Inc. | 3.19 | 942,200 | Reduce 3.96% |
| MHK | hist | Mohawk Industries | 3.05 | 838,975 | |
| CBG | hist | CB Richard Ellis Group | 3.04 | 2,811,450 | Reduce 11.42% |
| IPG | hist | Interpublic Group | 3.01 | 5,316,175 | Reduce 13.03% |
| ZMH | hist | Zimmer Holdings | 3.00 | 700,000 | Reduce 13.29% |
| OMC | hist | Omnicom Group | 3.00 | 1,101,600 | Reduce 8.65% |
| JNS | hist | Janus Capital Group | 2.87 | 4,069,675 | Add 25.45% |
| SWK | hist | Stanley Black & Decker Inc. | 2.72 | 678,499 | Add 2.31% |
| STJ | hist | St Jude Medical | 2.70 | 943,500 | Reduce 0.61% |
| DNB | hist | Dun & Bradstreet | 2.66 | 498,722 | Add 23.71% |
| BAX | hist | Baxter International Inc. | 2.61 | 808,750 | Add 28.57% |
| BEN | hist | Franklin Resources | 2.56 | 374,000 | Add 12.62% |
| CCL | hist | Carnival Corp. | 2.55 | 1,062,550 | Reduce 11.02% |
| SJM | hist | Smucker (J.M.) | 2.54 | 532,675 | |
| LAZ | hist | Lazard Ltd. | 2.43 | 1,145,200 | Add 94.48% |
| IGT | hist | International Game Technology | 2.39 | 1,921,700 | Reduce 5.03% |
| TIF | hist | Tiffany & Co. | 2.21 | 733,900 | Reduce 5.07% |
| TROW | hist | T. Rowe Price Group | 2.04 | 579,900 | |
| BIO | hist | Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. | 1.92 | 280,525 | |
| LH | hist | Laboratory Corp. of America Holding | 1.89 | 315,500 | Reduce 33.01% |
| ITW | hist | Illinois Tool Works | 1.89 | 576,150 | Add 27.59% |
| DELL | hist | Dell Inc. | 1.87 | 1,954,900 | Reduce 14.25% |
| CYN | hist | City National Corp. | 1.85 | 454,300 | Reduce 27.51% |
| MAT | hist | Mattel Inc. | 1.79 | 1,063,900 | Buy |
| JWN | hist | Nordstrom | 1.70 | 667,500 | |
| MKC | hist | McCormick & Co. | 1.60 | 532,825 | Reduce 24.39% |
| DV | hist | DeVRY Inc. | 1.51 | 363,800 | Buy |
| ENR | hist | Energizer Holdings Inc. | 1.50 | 375,900 | Reduce 16.11% |
| CLX | hist | Clorox Co. | 1.40 | 284,347 | Reduce 11.71% |
| AXE | hist | Anixter International | 1.06 | 313,000 | Reduce 40.65% |
| BID | hist | Sotheby's | 0.90 | 494,800 | |
Sector % analysis
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Articles & Commentaries
17 Jun 2010 Ariel May Commentary
Greece is and always has been tiny in economic terms—it had 0.32% of world GDP in 1913 and has just 0.37% in 1990. Meanwhile, China which many think of as a very recent economic powerhouse had 8.80% of GDP in 1913 and 7.70% in 1990. So if China were imperiled, that would be very serious, but Greece alone does not move the needle...
...We also doubt that the recent correction will initiate a bear market and would be very surprised if panic seized the market as it did in 2008 and early 2009. This does not mean there will not be bumps along the way. So we are keeping in mind the playbook we used in the depths of that bear market: when fear escalates, opportunities abound.
Greece is and always has been tiny in economic terms—it had 0.32% of world GDP in 1913 and has just 0.37% in 1990. Meanwhile, China which many think of as a very recent economic powerhouse had 8.80% of GDP in 1913 and 7.70% in 1990. So if China were imperiled, that would be very serious, but Greece alone does not move the needle...
...We also doubt that the recent correction will initiate a bear market and would be very surprised if panic seized the market as it did in 2008 and early 2009. This does not mean there will not be bumps along the way. So we are keeping in mind the playbook we used in the depths of that bear market: when fear escalates, opportunities abound.
14 Jun 2010 Forbes Interview: Ariel Investments CEO John Rogers
Right. It is very hard to underperform [the markets] even if you're working at it, which actually makes the case it's hard to outperform when you're working at it. I think the markets are extraordinarily efficient.
And if you don't have the time and energy to read up and study the markets and figure out which money managers to hire, it makes sense to stay in an index and pay the low fees, and you'll do fine until you find someone that you're confident that can add value. And there's not that many active managers out there that have proved over time they can outperform. But those that are out there, those rare gems, I think are worth the fees that they charge.
...People are now rushing into gold. People are very concerned. But I remember when I first got out of Princeton, it was back at the time when the Hunt Brothers are on the cover of all the magazines and people were making so much money in silver and gold back then. Oil and gas was booming, but then, inevitably, it shifted.
And once it went from a boom, it went to a bust. I think commodities inevitably have these big ups and these big downs, and it's very, very difficult to predict when they're going to shift and where they're going to go to. I'm sure there are certain people who know how to do that, but I don't think I'm one of them...
Right. It is very hard to underperform [the markets] even if you're working at it, which actually makes the case it's hard to outperform when you're working at it. I think the markets are extraordinarily efficient.
And if you don't have the time and energy to read up and study the markets and figure out which money managers to hire, it makes sense to stay in an index and pay the low fees, and you'll do fine until you find someone that you're confident that can add value. And there's not that many active managers out there that have proved over time they can outperform. But those that are out there, those rare gems, I think are worth the fees that they charge.
...People are now rushing into gold. People are very concerned. But I remember when I first got out of Princeton, it was back at the time when the Hunt Brothers are on the cover of all the magazines and people were making so much money in silver and gold back then. Oil and gas was booming, but then, inevitably, it shifted.
And once it went from a boom, it went to a bust. I think commodities inevitably have these big ups and these big downs, and it's very, very difficult to predict when they're going to shift and where they're going to go to. I'm sure there are certain people who know how to do that, but I don't think I'm one of them...
11 Feb 2010 John W. Rogers: Back to normal
Fans of the new-normal dogma predict a decade of mediocre stock market returns. They are speculating that Americans will put 20% of their pay in piggy banks and curtail discretionary spending, which translates into slow growth for the U.S. economy. I don't believe personal behavior will shift so radically.
There's nothing new about the normal I'm seeing. Instead, I believe 2010 will be a return to normalcy that leaves us close to the average growth rate of the last quarter-century. This isn't the high-octane spending we saw just before the financial crisis, but it isn't austerity, either...
Fans of the new-normal dogma predict a decade of mediocre stock market returns. They are speculating that Americans will put 20% of their pay in piggy banks and curtail discretionary spending, which translates into slow growth for the U.S. economy. I don't believe personal behavior will shift so radically.
There's nothing new about the normal I'm seeing. Instead, I believe 2010 will be a return to normalcy that leaves us close to the average growth rate of the last quarter-century. This isn't the high-octane spending we saw just before the financial crisis, but it isn't austerity, either...
12 Jan 2010 Video: John Rogers of Ariel Investments on CNBC
John Rogers, CEO of Ariel Investments, shares his outlook on the markets.
John Rogers, CEO of Ariel Investments, shares his outlook on the markets.
19 Nov 2009 Video: John Rogers of Ariel investments on CNBC
Despite the caution on the Street, Ariel Investment CEO John Rogers, sees many opportunities in the market...
Despite the caution on the Street, Ariel Investment CEO John Rogers, sees many opportunities in the market...
19 Nov 2009 Ariel Investments - Q3 2009 Commentary
Lesson #1—“Invest in what you know.” (Peter Lynch)
Lesson #2—“The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” (Sir John Templeton)
Lesson #3— “The strongest of all warriors are these two—time and patience.” (Leo Tolstoy)
Despite some big gains this quarter and year, we remain optimistic that our portfolios still have meaningful upside ahead. In fact, we agree with the October 5, 2009 edition of BusinessWeek which declared, “American corporations have rarely if ever emerged from a recession so lean, financially fit, and ready to respond to growth.”
Lesson #1—“Invest in what you know.” (Peter Lynch)
Lesson #2—“The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” (Sir John Templeton)
Lesson #3— “The strongest of all warriors are these two—time and patience.” (Leo Tolstoy)
Despite some big gains this quarter and year, we remain optimistic that our portfolios still have meaningful upside ahead. In fact, we agree with the October 5, 2009 edition of BusinessWeek which declared, “American corporations have rarely if ever emerged from a recession so lean, financially fit, and ready to respond to growth.”
29 Jul 2009 John W. Rogers - Ariel Investments - Q2 2009 Commentary
Well, the world didn’t end.” - Barron’s, July 13, 2009
Valuations we have never seen before—stocks selling at fire-sale prices—we have had the courage to buy more of our cheapest names even as they have gotten cheaper. Ultimately, the cheapest names became our largest holdings as we built substantial positions in our highest conviction names. And here we must underscore bargain shopping did not mean we were forced to bottom fish on the quality spectrum. The reverse was actually true. So many quality companies were so hard hit in the market downturn we had our proverbial “pick of the litter.” As The New York Times rightly noted, “A benefit of an abysmal investment year like 2008 is that it’s the equivalent of a liquidation sale. Fund managers can pick up their favorite stocks at low prices. And when the market recovers, as it did in the second quarter this year, they can score big gains. Many argue this approach was inherently risky because we were loading up on names some believed to be left for dead. We disagree. We did our homework by re-analyzing each stock as if we had never owned it. In so doing, we re-calculated or reaffirmed a private market value for every holding. As investing great Warren Buffett, rightly notes, “...it’s not risky to buy securities at a fraction of what they’re worth.” This work led us to conclude, “...when the market recognizes our survivors will do just that, we believe [our] stocks will shoot the lights out. And so they did and with our portfolios still selling at more than a 35% discount to our view of their intrinsic worth, we believe many of these issues have quite a ways to go.
Well, the world didn’t end.” - Barron’s, July 13, 2009
Valuations we have never seen before—stocks selling at fire-sale prices—we have had the courage to buy more of our cheapest names even as they have gotten cheaper. Ultimately, the cheapest names became our largest holdings as we built substantial positions in our highest conviction names. And here we must underscore bargain shopping did not mean we were forced to bottom fish on the quality spectrum. The reverse was actually true. So many quality companies were so hard hit in the market downturn we had our proverbial “pick of the litter.” As The New York Times rightly noted, “A benefit of an abysmal investment year like 2008 is that it’s the equivalent of a liquidation sale. Fund managers can pick up their favorite stocks at low prices. And when the market recovers, as it did in the second quarter this year, they can score big gains. Many argue this approach was inherently risky because we were loading up on names some believed to be left for dead. We disagree. We did our homework by re-analyzing each stock as if we had never owned it. In so doing, we re-calculated or reaffirmed a private market value for every holding. As investing great Warren Buffett, rightly notes, “...it’s not risky to buy securities at a fraction of what they’re worth.” This work led us to conclude, “...when the market recognizes our survivors will do just that, we believe [our] stocks will shoot the lights out. And so they did and with our portfolios still selling at more than a 35% discount to our view of their intrinsic worth, we believe many of these issues have quite a ways to go.
28 Jul 2009 Video: John W. Rogers of Ariel Investments on CNBC
Earnings reports, health care reform and the role of the Fed--investor John Rogers breaks down the latest news...
Earnings reports, health care reform and the role of the Fed--investor John Rogers breaks down the latest news...
16 Jul 2009 Thriving In Chaos - John Rogers
The poster child for faulty analysis rocked the boat at Royal Caribbean (12, RCL) early in 2009. (It has been in my portfolios since 2007.) On Jan. 28, the day before an earnings report, an analyst at a big bank slashed her price target from $20 to $1 and her 2009 earnings estimate from $1.98 to a loss of 92 cents. The company then reaffirmed $1.40 guidance for 2009. That moved the analyst just a little bit; she raised her earnings target to a loss of 26 cents but kept the $1 price target in place as the stock hovered above $6. Then, in mid-April, the company announced that it had secured financing that had been in doubt. The stock jumped to $13 and the analyst raised her price target to $6. If you find this a case of reacting to events rather than predicting them, so do I.
The poster child for faulty analysis rocked the boat at Royal Caribbean (12, RCL) early in 2009. (It has been in my portfolios since 2007.) On Jan. 28, the day before an earnings report, an analyst at a big bank slashed her price target from $20 to $1 and her 2009 earnings estimate from $1.98 to a loss of 92 cents. The company then reaffirmed $1.40 guidance for 2009. That moved the analyst just a little bit; she raised her earnings target to a loss of 26 cents but kept the $1 price target in place as the stock hovered above $6. Then, in mid-April, the company announced that it had secured financing that had been in doubt. The stock jumped to $13 and the analyst raised her price target to $6. If you find this a case of reacting to events rather than predicting them, so do I.
09 Jun 2009 Video: John Rogers of Ariel Investments on CNBC
Value guru John Rogers of Ariel sees the current investing climate as the best buying opportunity of a lifetime...
Value guru John Rogers of Ariel sees the current investing climate as the best buying opportunity of a lifetime...
25 Mar 2009 The Weighing Machine by John Rogers
Patience is a virtue in value investing and, like Graham, I tend to pay attention to the scale more than the ballot box.
There are lots of "toxic" assets on balance sheets today. In all likelihood they will be worth plenty in the future, but right now they aren't. Mark-to-market accounting means a company's value rests upon last-trade prices rather than the value that it stands to create over the coming years. I believe, like Steve Forbes and Warren Buffett, that this system needs fixing.
Recommends: Dell, Hess, Janus Capital.
Patience is a virtue in value investing and, like Graham, I tend to pay attention to the scale more than the ballot box.
There are lots of "toxic" assets on balance sheets today. In all likelihood they will be worth plenty in the future, but right now they aren't. Mark-to-market accounting means a company's value rests upon last-trade prices rather than the value that it stands to create over the coming years. I believe, like Steve Forbes and Warren Buffett, that this system needs fixing.
Recommends: Dell, Hess, Janus Capital.
15 Feb 2009 Opportunity Knocks - John W. Rogers of Ariel Investments
When the stock market goes from confidence to pessimism, it tends to overshoot. That is exactly what has happened, and it has turned me very bullish. I've said it before: Maximum fear breeds maximum opportunity if you are rational and long term in your outlook...
...last year just didn't make sense to most people in my profession. Look at what has happened to General Electric, one of the few blue chips with an AAA rating. In 2008 GE was squeezed when it couldn't access credit markets for its short-term debt, as it routinely has for years...
When the stock market goes from confidence to pessimism, it tends to overshoot. That is exactly what has happened, and it has turned me very bullish. I've said it before: Maximum fear breeds maximum opportunity if you are rational and long term in your outlook...
...last year just didn't make sense to most people in my profession. Look at what has happened to General Electric, one of the few blue chips with an AAA rating. In 2008 GE was squeezed when it couldn't access credit markets for its short-term debt, as it routinely has for years...