28 Jan 2021 Fundsmith 2020 Annual Letter to Shareholders ( Portfolio )

Imagine if you had been told this time last year that there would be a pandemic and that the measures taken to contain it would so affect the world economy that US GDP would fall by 9% in the second quarter of the year and the hospitality and travel sectors would be devastated by the measures as would large segments of traditional retail activity. Considering this would you have predicted that the MSCI World Index would deliver a return of 12.3%, slightly above its ten year average? Hopefully this illustrates the dangers of forecasting and market timing even when you know what major events will occur.